What factors make the Kurds difficult to be independent and what factors are helpful for the Kurds to be independent?

       The Kurds are named the largest nation in the world but without its own independent state. There are between 25 and 35 million Kurds in south-eastern Turkey, north-eastern Syria, northern Iraq, north-western Iran and south-western Armenia. Today, the Kurds believe in different religions but most of them are the Sunni Muslims and the Kurdish is their official language. It is still controversial today that the Kurds whether or not to be able to have their independent state in the future as there are great deals of factors which influence this fascinating fact in both positive and negative ways. So, the factors which make Kurdish independence more likely in the future are not only the weakness of some of those countries’ government which have large population of the Kurds inside them which are affected by the war, but also the Kurds’ successful beating back the ISIS which is a large terrorist organization. The factors which make the Kurdish independence less likely in the future are the Kurds’ inconvenient location which is across five independent and sovereign countries, as well as the non-uniform goals inside each part of the Kurds and the other countries’ disagreement to the independence of the Kurds.

Factors Which Make Kurdish Independence More Likely

       The weakness of some of those five countries’ government which have large population of the Kurds inside them make the Kurds more likely to be independent because of the war. For example, the Iraq War, in 2003, America started this military attack to the Iraq. This war made the serious economic loss of Iraq, large unemployed population and numerous casualties in Iraq. The troublous social condition, which was because of the warlord dogfight, made the new-established and unstable government too busy to deal with the Kurdish independence. In a 2017 referendum in Iraq, there were about 93% voters who were in the Kurdish autonomous region agreed with the Kurdish independence, although as a consequence, the Kurds did not succeed to separate from Iraq and they lost about 40% of their territory after repelling the ISIS, this referendum also made the Kurds solidary and strengthen their determination to be independent. Take another country, Syria as an instance, the outbreak of the civil war in Syria was in 2011 and this war is still not over until now. As for the loss in this war, the economy of Syria damaged about 48.4 billion dollars and its infrastructure got great destroyed too. During this war, the Kurds built up their power in Syria which made the Kurdish independence more likely to be happened in Syria. So, the unstable social condition in some of those five countries where the Kurds live in gave the Kurds more opportunities and more odds to be independent.

       Another factor is the Kurds’ successful beating back the ISIS which is a large terrorist organization. It makes the international status of the Kurds elevated and got some military help from other countries, such as the advanced weapons. In 2013, because of the ISIS’s contention for the three Kurdish enclaves that were the boundaries of Syria, the Kurds started the repelling the ISIS. During the repelling, America gave the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) advanced weapons and armored car repeatedly which empowered the Kurds more military improvement. As a consequence, the SDF successfully defeated the ISIS and recaptured the village of Baghouz which was the last pocket of territory held by IS in Syria. This total success increased the international status of the Kurds constituted the main force of the SDF; additionally, the European countries such as Germany, Britain, France appreciated the Kurds’ efforts the most and condemned America for the retreating of the American militaries in the Middle East region. So, the Kurds’ successful repelling of the ISIS not only made the Kurds even more powerful but also increased worldwide awareness and the support for the Kurds although numerous Kurds sacrificed in the war.

Factors Which Make Kurdish Independence Less Likely

       While these factors make Kurdish independence appear likely, there are also several factors which make independence less likely. The Kurds’ inconvenient location which is across five independent and sovereign countries make it more difficult to separate from five different countries. Nowadays, the Kurds are distributed in south-eastern Turkey, north-eastern Syria, northern Iraq, north-western Iran and south-western Armenia which are five independent countries. The Kurds take up about 10% to 20% of those countries’ populations which means if the Kurds separate from those five countries at a same time, it will be difficult to negotiate 5 separatist movements simultaneously and those five countries will lose a great deal of population, large territories which have large reserves of petroleum and lots of GDP per capita. The loss for those five countries is enormous enough to oppose the Kurdish independence. What is more, it is also difficult for the Kurds scattered in five different countries and had different nationalities to negotiate together. So, the Kurd’s inconvenient location make the Kurdish independence even less likely to achieve.

       The non-uniform goals and conflict inside each part of the Kurds which is in Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Syria and Armenia make it difficult to be solidary to protest for their independent state. Some Kurdistan groups are trying to expand their territory in a particular country while other groups are dedicating to be independent and establish their state. For example, the Patriotic Union of Kurdish and the Kurdistan Democratic Party that are active in Iraq are fighting for the more territories and autonomy of the Kurds in Iraq while the Kurdistan Workers' Party is always dedicating for the Kurdish independence and establish their own state. Furthermore, because of the non-uniform goals inside the Kurds, whether the Patriotic Union of Kurdish or the Kurdistan Democratic Party all oppose and contend to the Kurdistan Workers' Party which means there are conflicts inside the Kurds, and that is also disadvantageous for the Kurds to be cohesive to establish their own state. The different goals and conflicts inside the Kurds make it difficult to work as a whole collective to fight for the same goal.

      The other countries’ disagreement to the independence of the Kurds is also a substantial factor which make the Kurds less likely to be independent. Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Syria and Armenia where the Kurds live in do not want the Kurds to be independent undoubtedly because the Kurds’ territories and their large population. There was a referendum on the Kurdish independence in Iraq in 2017 that the consequence was 93% voters supported the Kurdish independence, regardless of the Iraqi government and other neighbor countries’ backlashing. Additionally, after the referendum, the Iraqi militaries went to recover Kirkuk and Turkey closed the boarder port and airspace between the Kurdish autonomous region in Iraq in order to block its communication and collaboration with its surrounding countries. It has already made the Kurds really difficult to have their state, but also America does not support the Kurdish independence as well. If the Kurds separate from those five countries and establish their state, this significant change maybe will reduce America’s authority here. So, the Kurdish independence lacks of other countries’ agreement.

Conclusion

       There are some factors which make Kurdish independence likely while there are others which make independence less likely in the future. It is less likely to see the Kurdish independence in the next several years. Although there are many advantages make the Kurds more convenient to be independent, if the situation in the Middle East region such as a significant national annex and an international and colossal-scaled war that are able to make either less countries in the Middle East region or less powerful and stable countries will not change in these years, the Kurds will still impossible to be independent because of the Kurds’ difficult situation now.